Wall Street has an adage that stocks must “climb a wall of worry,” and 2025 was a tall one. Trade policy, AI profitability, a government shutdown, and geopolitical flashpoints dampened sentiment, yet global stock markets still delivered double‑digit returns. Timing the market is no easy task.
Global equities were fueled by tariff rates that proved softer than initially feared, top-heavy consumer spending, robust AI-related capex, and lower interest rates. Technology leaders posted another strong year, but many international markets outpaced U.S. indices, and late-year trading hinted at a rotation toward areas such as healthcare as investors became more wary of stretched technology valuations and the contours of a bubble.
Figure 4 situates us fairly early in the transformative cycle of innovation—the beneficiaries have been the AI leaders themselves, followed by the picks and shovels powering the buildout. Once it reaches critical mass and real-world applications emerge, heightened corporate adoption should translate to broader productivity and revenue gains. During the interim, returns closely orbit a handful of names—as do the risks. If the technology succeeds, others stand to leverage it without being leveraged to it, which is where diversified equity strategies can participate in the theme without localizing risk.
Figure 4: The Institutionalization of Innovations
Length and capital deepening of notable innovations from 1760–2040
Source(s): BlackRock Investment Institute, 2025. N. Crafts, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 37, Issue 3, 2021
Perhaps it’s this line of thinking that has led to a spectacular move in precious metals. Gold prices surged more than 60% in 2025, supported by central bank buying, institutional hedging, and retail flows into related stocks and ETFs, leaving miners highly profitable with average all-in-sustaining costs well below current prices. History shows that such sentiment-driven moves can reverse quickly—the nearly 50% decline in gold between 2012 and 2015 being a recent example—so monitoring exposure, portfolio drift, and when to take profits is crucial.
Beneath the surface of public market volatility, private markets continued to attract institutional capital by no small margin. These investment opportunities offered investors a way to capture yield and growth with less mark-to-market turbulence than publicly traded securities. As pension funds and endowments have demonstrated, these alternative asset classes can serve as ballast when public equities become crowded or overextended—a lesson that may prove particularly relevant in the years ahead.
We began to see another important shift more clearly in 2025 as well. Whether by design or in reaction to recent events, the world is becoming more multipolar as governments emphasize economic security. A step back from globalization points toward fragmentation, and as the pieces are reassembled into competing blocs with aligned interests, opportunities are likely to emerge during the transition. Defense, energy security, critical minerals, and foundational infrastructure come to mind.
As we’ve noted before, the benefits of AI technology are ultimately distributive, while the risks are more localized.
Active management and regional expertise are, in our view, where equity managers will stake their value by identifying businesses that remain flexible in the face of change. These shifts can create “problems” in need of fixing, and solutions sell—especially those related to national interests and independence.
Source(s): Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of December 31, 2025.
Promus Advisors, an SEC-registered investment adviser, is an affiliate of Bellwether Investment Management, Inc. (“Bellwether”). Promus Advisors provides fee-based asset management and advisory services. Bellwether and Promus Advisors have entered into arrangements in which Bellwether may refer clients with financial advisory needs to Promus Advisors. Please note that SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Securities and Exchange Commission, nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill. Promus Advisors and its investment adviser representatives are in compliance with the current filing requirements imposed upon SEC-registered investment advisers by those states in which Promus Advisors maintains clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable, equal any corresponding performance level(s), or be suitable for any specific client’s portfolio. Promus Advisors does not guarantee that any benchmark or indices used by Bellwether will match a given portfolio. Furthermore, asset allocation and/or diversification does not necessarily improve an investor’s performance or eliminate the risk of investment loss.
Promus Asset Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Investment Advisory Services are offered through Promus Asset Management, LLC, which is independently owned and operated, and separate from Promus Advisors, LLC. Promus Asset Management, LLC will never be paid on products, commissions or referrals.
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02-02-2026
Quarterly Insights Pt. 2: Global Equities Q4 2025
Wall Street has an adage that stocks must “climb a wall of worry,” and 2025 was a tall one. Trade policy, AI profitability, a government shutdown, and geopolitical flashpoints dampened sentiment, yet global stock markets still delivered double‑digit returns. Timing the market is no easy task.
Global equities were fueled by tariff rates that proved softer than initially feared, top-heavy consumer spending, robust AI-related capex, and lower interest rates. Technology leaders posted another strong year, but many international markets outpaced U.S. indices, and late-year trading hinted at a rotation toward areas such as healthcare as investors became more wary of stretched technology valuations and the contours of a bubble.
Figure 4 situates us fairly early in the transformative cycle of innovation—the beneficiaries have been the AI leaders themselves, followed by the picks and shovels powering the buildout. Once it reaches critical mass and real-world applications emerge, heightened corporate adoption should translate to broader productivity and revenue gains. During the interim, returns closely orbit a handful of names—as do the risks. If the technology succeeds, others stand to leverage it without being leveraged to it, which is where diversified equity strategies can participate in the theme without localizing risk.
Figure 4: The Institutionalization of Innovations
Length and capital deepening of notable innovations from 1760–2040
Perhaps it’s this line of thinking that has led to a spectacular move in precious metals. Gold prices surged more than 60% in 2025, supported by central bank buying, institutional hedging, and retail flows into related stocks and ETFs, leaving miners highly profitable with average all-in-sustaining costs well below current prices. History shows that such sentiment-driven moves can reverse quickly—the nearly 50% decline in gold between 2012 and 2015 being a recent example—so monitoring exposure, portfolio drift, and when to take profits is crucial.
Beneath the surface of public market volatility, private markets continued to attract institutional capital by no small margin. These investment opportunities offered investors a way to capture yield and growth with less mark-to-market turbulence than publicly traded securities. As pension funds and endowments have demonstrated, these alternative asset classes can serve as ballast when public equities become crowded or overextended—a lesson that may prove particularly relevant in the years ahead.
We began to see another important shift more clearly in 2025 as well. Whether by design or in reaction to recent events, the world is becoming more multipolar as governments emphasize economic security. A step back from globalization points toward fragmentation, and as the pieces are reassembled into competing blocs with aligned interests, opportunities are likely to emerge during the transition. Defense, energy security, critical minerals, and foundational infrastructure come to mind.
As we’ve noted before, the benefits of AI technology are ultimately distributive, while the risks are more localized.
Active management and regional expertise are, in our view, where equity managers will stake their value by identifying businesses that remain flexible in the face of change. These shifts can create “problems” in need of fixing, and solutions sell—especially those related to national interests and independence.
Promus Advisors, an SEC-registered investment adviser, is an affiliate of Bellwether Investment Management, Inc. (“Bellwether”). Promus Advisors provides fee-based asset management and advisory services. Bellwether and Promus Advisors have entered into arrangements in which Bellwether may refer clients with financial advisory needs to Promus Advisors. Please note that SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Securities and Exchange Commission, nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill. Promus Advisors and its investment adviser representatives are in compliance with the current filing requirements imposed upon SEC-registered investment advisers by those states in which Promus Advisors maintains clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable, equal any corresponding performance level(s), or be suitable for any specific client’s portfolio. Promus Advisors does not guarantee that any benchmark or indices used by Bellwether will match a given portfolio. Furthermore, asset allocation and/or diversification does not necessarily improve an investor’s performance or eliminate the risk of investment loss.
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